Since the onset of the economic recession, the notion that economic hardship might lead individuals to revise or postpone their childbearing plans has been the object of renewed scholarly interest. This study enhances existing knowledge by investigating changes in the fertility intentions of mothers residing in Italy, before and after the global economic crisis of 2007/08. It focuses particularly on mothers with one child and compares their reasons for not intending to have a second child in 2002 and in 2012.

Data are drawn from the ISTAT Sample Survey on Births and Mothers, which not only includes a question on future fertility intentions but, most importantly, also asks mothers what their main reason is for not intending to have another child in the future. Multinomial logistic regression models are fitted to examine the relationships between the reasons (economic constraints, age limits, preferences and other reasons) for not wanting another child and the main socio-demographic characteristics of primiparous mothers, separately for 2002 and 2012.

Descriptive findings show that the proportion of primiparous mothers with negative fertility intentions increased from 21 percent to 25 percent over the 10 year period. Further, the analysis of their reasons for not wanting another child reveals that this is mostly due to an increase in the proportion of mothers whose negative intentions are motivated by economic constraints.

Multivariate results show that socio-economic differences among mothers reporting economic constraints as their main reason for not having a second child have narrowed over time but that age differences have become more pronounced. These findings reflect the deterioration of labour market participation for all households in Italy and indicate that the uncertainty introduced by the recent economic recession is likely to suppress fertility further as more women ‘stop at one’.