Associations between Non-Marital Childbearing and Its Correlates over Time and Space in Germany – Does Voting Behaviour Matter?

Brienna Perelli-Harris, University of Southampton
Stephanie Thiehoff, University of Southampton
Agnese Vitali, University of Southampton

There have been considerable changes in family formation patterns and an uptake of non-marital childbearing in Europe since the 1970s. Germany is probably the most extreme case with large spatial variations in births out of wedlock in Europe. Different theoretical frameworks have been developed to understand this phenomenon: Ideational or value change to more liberal values is advocated to be the reason on the one hand and economic uncertainty is seen to be the driver on the other hand. Theories as well as research in politics and political psychology propose that voting behaviour is closely linked to personal values. How liberal voting behaviour helps to understand fertility behaviour will be explored here as proposed by the SDT framework. Other important correlates are economic uncertainty, female labour force participation as well as education. The objective of this paper is to study the spatial associations of non-marital childbearing and especially which correlate contributes the most to it in different points of time (1994, 2004 and 2014). A Geographically Weighted Regression using standardised variables is applied to determine the variable with the highest explanatory power and adding the most to childbearing out of wedlock. When comparing the variables with most explanatory power the usual East-West-divide completely disappears. Liberal and egalitarian family values seem to matter in explaining an increase in non-marital childbearing. As non-marital childbearing becomes more prevalent, male unemployment becomes more important in understanding this behaviour in times of higher economic uncertainty. The analysis suggests as well that when childbearing within cohabitation becomes more prevalent, different variables (values and economic uncertainty) have higher explanatory power than when births to single mothers are more widespread.

Presented in Session 76: Contextual Effects on Fertility