Spatial Projections of Age-Structured Populations

Jing Gao, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Leiwen Jiang, Asian Demographic Research Institute of Shanghai University
Brian O'Neill, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Erich Striessnig, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), Austria

In recent years, both the availability and use of population information in climate change impact assessments have greatly improved. One important milestone in this direction were the Wittgenstein Centre’s multi-dimensional cohort-component projections of national populations by age, sex, and level of educational attainment (Lutz, Butz, and KC 2014). They provide the “human core” of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (KC and Lutz 2017; O’Neill et al. 2015) that have since been spatially disaggregated (Jones and O’Neill 2016), yet without the aforementioned sociodemographic characteristics already included in the SSPs. The main objective of this paper is to add age-structure to these spatial projections. Using data from U.S. censuses, we analyze the degree of spatial variation in the age structure of the U.S. population dating back to 1940. Once a firm relationship between the age- and the spatial-distribution has been established, this will serve to calibrate the projection model.

Presented in Session 32: Innovative Data and Methods in Population and Development