The New Trends of Fertility Pattern after China's Population Policy Change: An Analysis Based on Population Dynamics Monitoring System

Hongyan Liu, China Population and Development Research Center
Qiang Tong, National Open University of China
Cuiling Zhang, Vienna Institute of Demography
Xuying Zhang, China Population and Development Research Center

This study brings new information about the fertility behavior of China based on 120-county population dynamics monitoring system data to better understand the effect of population policy and shed lights on the future. Data shows the annual births increase since 2011 (1.1 million) to 2012 (1.22 million), then followed by a decrease to about 1 million in 2016. The share of first birth order continuously deceased with the share of second birth increased for the same period. The sex ratio at birth also show a downward trend in recent year, closing to natural level. Birth timing keep a universal postponed trend regardless women’s residence, education, birth order and ethnic background. However, the share of giving first birth below 25, share of having second birth below 30s, the second birth interval short than four years are all declined. Deeply analysis the characteristics of sub-group of different birth order is quite needed.

Presented in Session 64: Family Policies and Outcomes