The aim of the paper is to make a projection of future demand for care among the elderly that quantitatively evaluates the impact of changes in health status and living arrangements on future care requirements. The demand for care is defined as the number of people requiring care according to their health status. The paper attempts to contribute to the field by performing a study that links changes of the population age structure with changes of health status and living arrangements.

The research makes use of a dynamic multistate projection model. Health and living arrangements transition probabilities are estimated at micro-level using EU-SILC panel data. In the next step they are integrated with official Eurostat population projections using simulation methods. The model allows to estimate the effect of change in the health status by age over demand for care according to various morbidity hypotheses which are used to formulate projection scenarios. The information about the elderly’s living arrangements in the model allows to assess the influence of household’s diminishing informal care resources on the scale of demand for formal care.

The preliminary analyses show the expected overall growth in future’s elderly care demand, especially at older ages. However, the scale of future care requirements is sensitive to health improvement scenarios. A growing share of the elderly in bad health and living solitarily suggests a need of development of institutional care facilities.

The results of the research may be used by social policy for adjusting the supply of formal institutional care and development of social and care services according to the future needs.