Do Levels of Infant Mortality Reach Millennium Goal? A classification from DHS Data

Fausta Ongaro, University of Padova
maria Silvana Salvini, University f Florence

In this contribution, firstly we will outline the trend of infant and child mortality in developing countries comparing the results of different available surveys with the results of each survey deriving from the retrospective women’ birth histories. Secondly, we will observe the final values of rates (preferably 2010-2015) with the target of Millennium Goal. Thirdly, we will search the determinants (background and intermediate) variables of infant mortality.

As it regards methods used, firstly we show a descriptive analysis of the trends, divided according to the gap with Millennium Goals and secondly we will use techniques of cluster analysis on historical series of infant mortality rates and related variables.

From a descriptive point of view, for example Jordan, Liberia, Peru and Senegal have reduced infant mortality of more than two/thirds so reaching the target previewed by the Goals, while the large majority of countries of Africa, Asia and America Latina present at the end of 2010-2015 a value of infant mortality around the half of late ‘80s. These are the cases of Malawi, Madagascar, Mali, Niger and Rwanda, for sub-Saharan Africa. Other countries present a worst pattern, citing firstly Ghana and Ethiopia in Africa and Haiti in Central America.

The clusters obtained with the above cited variables show the evolution of the countries during the times of the surveys. The pattern of the countries passing from a cluster to another illustrates the passage from a situation to another, generally from a cluster characterized by worse condition to another with a better condition.

Presented in Poster Session 3