Social Class and Fertility in the Global South. Results from Micro-Level Census Data

Francesco Scalone, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna
Martin Dribe, Center for Economic Demography and Department of Economic History, Lund University

The aim of this paper is to study social class differentials in fertility in a global perspective, to test hypotheses regarding a reversal of class differences during the fertility transition. The fertility trends by social class are estimated using micro census data from the International Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) for the period 1960-2015. The collected datasets include 121 census samples from 53 countries, considering almost 45 million married/in union women aged 15 to 54. Ordinary least squares (OLS) are estimated to assess the association between social class and children ever born.

Preliminary results show clear class gradient in cohort fertility. The analysis will be further developed by a more detailed modeling of the different stages in the fertility transition, distinguishing pre-transition, early-transition, late transition, and post-transition. It will provide a picture of class differences in fertility in different parts of the world at different stages of the transition.


Presented in Session 1158: Fertility