Unexpected Developments in Maghrebian Fertility. a Historical and Comparative View

Zahia Ouadah-Bedidi, Univeristé Paris Diderot / INED
Jacques Vallin, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques

After converging towards replacement level, fertility in Maghreb is now following contrasting trends. In Tunisia, the total fertility rate (TFR) has levelled off and remained stable at 2.1 children per woman since 1999. In Algeria, after dipping to 2.2 in the early 2000s, fertility has increased steadily, reaching almost 3.1 in 2013. In Morocco and Libya, meanwhile, where fertility was still above replacement in 2000, the TFR has continued its rapid decline, down to 2.1 and 2.2 children per woman, respectively. Not only has fertility remained above replacement level in all of these countries, but Algeria has even seen a sharp upturn in the last decade, As in the past for fertility decline, the change in age at marriage could be the key factor behind the stabilization at 2 children per woman in Tunisia and in the increase to more than 3 in Algeria. Has the two-child model faded in these countries.

Presented in Poster Session 1