Dynamics of Life Expectancy at Older Ages in Russian Megacities (the case of Moscow and Saint-Petersburg)

Natalia Kalmykova, Moscow State University
Anna Safarova, Saint-Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences
Gaiane Safarova, Saint-Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences

Russia’s population is rapidly ageing, and the need for thorough analysis of this process increases. Big cities in general, and Moscow and Saint – Petersburg particularly, are at the forefront of demographic changes, their total population being about 10% of Russia’s population. One of the driving forces behind population ageing is increase in life expectancy (LE) at older ages. The purpose of the study is to make a comparative analysis of LE at older ages in Moscow and Saint – Petersburg in 1990 – 2014 and to estimate the contribution of older ages (60+) to the LE increase .

The paper is based on data given by Rosstat and HMD. Computations are made in Excel. Decomposition of LE changes to estimate contributions of different age groups is used.

In general, increase in LE at older ages (60, 65, 70, 75 and 80) during 1990 – 2014 (relative to the initial year) for Moscow was greater than for Saint – Petersburg, for males - greater than for females. For the whole period, LE values for Moscow exceed those for Saint – Petersburg for all considered ages for males and females, with a very few exceptions. Changes in LE at birth for the last two decades (1996 – 2005 and 2005 -2014) are considered. Essential distinctions in the contribution of older age groups to changes in LE at birth for Moscow and Saint - Petersburg during 1996 – 2005 and during 2005 -2014 (for male and for female populations) have been revealed.

Increasing LE of the elderly makes a significant contribution to the growth of LE. This fact (apart from ethical considerations) is also a strong argument in favor of intensifying efforts to reduce the morbidity and mortality of older people.

*The paper has been supported by Russian Humanitarian Foundation, grant 16-02-00595

Presented in Poster Session 1