Dynamics of Life Expectancy at Older Ages in Russian Megacities (the case of Moscow and Saint-Petersburg)

Gaiane Safarova, Saint-Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences
Anna Safarova, Saint-Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences
Natalia Kalmykova, Moscow State University

Russia’s population is rapidly ageing, and the need for thorough analysis of this process increases. Big cities in general, and Moscow and Saint – Petersburg particularly, are at the forefront of demographic changes, their total population being about 10% of Russia’s population. One of the driving forces behind population ageing is increase in life expectancy (LE) at older ages. The purpose of the study is to make a comparative analysis of LE at older ages in Moscow and Saint – Petersburg in 1990 – 2014 and to estimate the contribution of older ages (60+) to the LE increase .

The paper is based on data given by Rosstat and HMD. Computations are made in Excel. Decomposition of LE changes to estimate contributions of different age groups is used.

In general, increase in LE at older ages (60, 65, 70, 75 and 80) during 1990 – 2014 (relative to the initial year) for Moscow was greater than for Saint – Petersburg, for males - greater than for females. For the whole period, LE values for Moscow exceed those for Saint – Petersburg for all considered ages for males and females, with a very few exceptions. Changes in LE at birth for the last two decades (1996 – 2005 and 2005 -2014) are considered. Essential distinctions in the contribution of older age groups to changes in LE at birth for Moscow and Saint - Petersburg during 1996 – 2005 and during 2005 -2014 (for male and for female populations) have been revealed.

Increasing LE of the elderly makes a significant contribution to the growth of LE. This fact (apart from ethical considerations) is also a strong argument in favor of intensifying efforts to reduce the morbidity and mortality of older people.

*The paper has been supported by Russian Humanitarian Foundation, grant 16-02-00595


Russia’spopulation is rapidly ageing, and the need for thorough analysis of thisprocess increases. Big cities in general, and Moscow and Saint – Petersburg particularly, are at the forefront of demographic changes, their totalpopulation being an essential part (about 10%) of Russia’s population. One ofthe driving forces behind population ageing is increase in life expectancy (LE)at older ages. The purpose of this study is to make a comparative analysis ofLE at older ages in Moscow and Saint – Petersburg in 1990 – 2014 and toestimate the contribution of older ages (60+) to the LE increase (for male andfor female populations).

Thepaper is based on data given by Rosstat and HMD. Computations are madein Excel. Decomposition of LE changes to estimate contributions of differentage groups is used.

Similaritiesand differences in the character of changes in LE in Moscow and Saint-Petersburg have been revealed and described systematically.In general, increase in LE at older ages (60, 65, 70, 75 and80) during 1990 – 2014 (relative to the initial year) for Moscow was greaterthan for Saint – Petersburg, for males -greater than for females (see Table 1).

Table 1. Increase in life expectancyat older ages in 1990 – 2014 (relative to 1990, %), males and females, Moscow and Saint-Petersburg

age

life expectancy at the age of

60

65

70

75

80

city

males

Moscow

41.7

46.7

53.3

60.6

70.1

Saint-Petersburg

23.2

24.8

34.1

35.2

38.1

 

females

Moscow

25.8

29.8

34.2

37.3

40.9

Saint-Petersburg

19.2

23.0

26.6

29.4

32.2

Source:own computations based on Rosstat data

Forthe whole period, LE values for Moscow exceed those for Saint – Petersburg with a very few exceptions.

Changesin LE at birth for the last two decades (1996 – 2005 and 2005 -2014) are consideredfrom the point of view of the contribution of older ages (60+) to the LEincrease (see Fig. 1).

Fig.1. Decomposition of changes in LE at birth for the last two decades (between1996 and 2005, and between 2005 and 2014), males and females, Moscow andSaint-Petersburg, years

Source:own computations based on Rosstat data

Essentialdistinctions in the contribution of older age groups to changes in LE at birthfor Moscow and Saint- Petersburg during the last two decades (for male and for female populations)are revealed. In 1996 – 2005, this contribution for females was greater thanfor males both for Moscow and Saint – Petersburg, for Moscow having been equal to 1.19 formales and 1.34 years for females, for Saint – Petersburg – 0.30 and 0.57 years respectively.Unlike the previous one, in the decade 2005 -2014, for Moscow an inverseinequality took place (the considered contribution was equal 2.87 for males and2.64 years for females). In both decades, both for males and females thiscontribution for Moscow was greater than for Saint – Petersburg. The revealed distinctionsrequire further consideration, including the analysis of mortality by causes ofdeath.

                                   

Despitethe increase in LE at older ages, populations of Moscow and Saint - Petersburg are still behind in terms of thisindicator from economically developed countries. Thus, the dynamics of LE atolder ages (60, 65, 70, 75, 80) for both sexes in Russia and in severalEuropean countries - France, Poland, Spain and Sweden, has been considered, comparedwith recent available data for Moscow and Saint - Petersburg. For comparison,these countries were chosen because they represent different regions of Europe- Western (France), Eastern (Poland), Southern (Spain) and Northern (Sweden) - and in their regions have a high rating in LE.

IncreasingLE of the elderly makes a significant contribution to the growth of LE. Thisfact (apart from ethical considerations) is also a strong argument in favor ofintensifying efforts to reduce the morbidity and mortality of older people.

 <>References

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2.                 KvashaE., Kharkova T. Moscow mortality phenomenon – lessons for Russia / Problems in Statistics. 2008. ¹ 9. P. 6 - 17.

3.                 Officialweb site of Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) http://www.gks.ru

4.                 SafarovaG., Kozlov L. Demographic analysis of mortality and life expectancy of theelderly in Saint-Petersburg/ Saint-Petersburg: Nauka, 2014. 108 p. (with theparticipation of  Safarova A. and Lisenenkov A.)

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*The paper has beensupported by Russian Humanitarian Foundation, grant 16-02-00595

Presented in Session 1232: Mortality and Longevity