A Multiregional Population Projection model at EU Level

Marie Vandresse, Federal Planning Bureau

This paper explores the possibility of building a multiregional migration model at the EU level based on Eurostat statistics on migration by country of previous and next residence, by country of birth or by citizenship. These statistics are used to build a consistent origin-destination matrix for the EU Member States. In this case, ’consistent’ means that all intra-EU movements sum to zero. This matrix is then used to compute migration rates between EU countries, which can be inserted into a multiregional population projection model.

This paper shows that the currently available official statistics on migration flows can be used to build a multiregional migration model at the EU level. Although more developments should be implemented to test and improve the model, it produces credible results in comparison with other projection models on European scale.

Presented in Poster Session 3