Risks of Death at Oldest Ages: What Do We Learn from Experiences of French, Belgian and French-Canadian Centenarians?

France Meslé, Institut National d''Etudes Démographiques
Nadine Ouellette, Université de Montréal
Linh Hoang Khanh Dang, Institut national d''études démographiques (INED)

Despite the rapid increase in number of individuals attaining oldest ages, there is no clear understanding of how mortality is behaving at these age ranges. Does the mortality continue to increase exponentially with ages or will it slow down, halt, or even decline? Multiple studies on the form of mortality curve at oldest ages give out inconclusive results, partly due to the poor quality of death records at old ages. This present study aims to address criticism on data quality by working on an unprecedented age-validated dataset from France, Belgium and Québec. After presenting data sources and methods used for the validation of age at death in each population, age-specific mortality rates over 100 are estimated, used as a basis to test different statistical models of mortality, and give out more reliable insights on the shape of mortality curve above age 100.

Presented in Session 1192: Mortality and Longevity