Demographic Ageing and the Portuguese Pension System: Evidence from a Dynamic Microsimulation Model
Alda B. Azevedo, Instituto de Ciências Sociais, Universidade de Lisboa
Luís Manso, Instituto de Ciências Sociais, Universidade de Lisboa
Amílcar Moreira, Instituto de Ciências Sociais, Universidade de Lisboa
Rui Nicola, University of Southampton
Preliminary results from the baseline scenario show that the Portuguese population will continue to decline and age. Excluding the migratory flow, the population is expected drop by 25% and the old-age dependency ratio is expected to increase from 31 individuals aged 65 and over for every 100 persons in working age in 2015 to 70 in 2060. Consequently, maintaining the current eligibility and qualifying conditions for old-age, survivors and disability pensions, the percentage of pensioners in the Portuguese population is expected to increase from 26% in 2015 to 37% in 2060. Nevertheless, the projected economic growth will contribute to keep pension expenditure relatively stable, below 14% of the Gross Domestic Product (in current prices).
It is expected that the results of DYNAPOR will strengthen the evidence-base upon which the debate on the balance between financial and social sustainability of the Portuguese Pension system runs.