Explaining the Unexpected Decline of Teenage Fertility in England: An Ecological Study

Ann Berrington, University of Southampton
Katie L Heap, University of Southampton
Roger Ingham, University of Southampton

The UK’s teenage fertility rates have been higher than many European countries for several decades. Teenage fertility rate fell by around 30 percent between 1998 and 2008 but halved between 2008 and 2015 due to falling conceptions and a consistent portion of conceptions ending in abortion. Explanations behind teenage fertility reduction often include the ten-year UK Government’s Teenage Pregnancy Strategy (TPS). However, this paper also considers the wider U.K. context involving societal changes: rising post-compulsory educational aspirations; changing teenage ethnic composition; declining housing affordability leading to the postponement of permanently leaving the parental home; and increased deprivation associated with economic recession and Government austerity post-2008. The explanations behind geographical variations in societal changes and teenage fertility rates in England have received insufficient attention. This project explores teenage conception rates and abortion ratios throughout England’s 326 Local Authority Districts (LAD) and their associations with changes in LAD-level characteristics. Random intercept linear regression is used to identify teenage fertility’s measures’ variability within and between LADs. Panel regression is used to explore the relationships between LAD-level characteristics’ and teenage conception rates (and abortion ratios), and whether associations altered throughout 1998-2016. LADs in England with greater area-level deprivation had greater conception rates and a lower proportion ending in abortion, although both of these relationships’ effects weakened between 1998 and 2016. Factors consistently associated with teenage conceptions and abortions include LADs’ house price and social housing, where these relationships manifest differently with conceptions compared to abortions (like deprivation). We will have explored the within-LAD variation in teenage conceptions and abortions with changing LAD-level characteristics using fixed effect models. Next steps also include further exploration of these factors when including LADs’ TPS funding.

Presented in Session 118: Routes to Parenthood