Increased female education is an important factor affecting contemporary fertility levels. However, less is known about how educational differentials in fertility relate to the (non)realization of fertility intentions. Although highly educated women do not usually express a preference for smaller families, they are often more likely to postpone the start of their reproductive career and to face higher opportunity costs of having a child. Some may therefore end up under-achieving or revising downward their fertility intentions.

This paper focuses on women in Italy who already had a first child and expressed their intention of having a second child in the future. We investigate whether the realization of their fertility intentions is associated with their educational level by asking:

1. Do highly educated women differ from less educated women in the likelihood of realizing, postponing or revising their fertility intentions?
2. To what extent can these differences be explained by other factors such as differences in age at first childbirth and in labour market engagement over time?

The study uses data from the Istat Sample Survey on Births 2005 (cross-sectional edition) and 2012 (longitudinal edition), which re-interviewed a sub-sample of the women who took part in the 2005 survey. Using multinomial regression, we model fertility ‘outcomes’ by 2012 for the sub-sample. Results show that highly educated women are more likely to realize, and less likely to revise downward, their fertility intentions compared to less educated women. These differences persist even when controlling for other biological and socio-economic factors conditioning their ability to realize fertility intentions. We also explore interactions between women’s educational level and these other biological and socio-economic factors. We conclude by discussing possible explanations for the findings, which provide additional insight into why Italy may be an exception within the EU-27.